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    稀疏化数据条件下的风电装备寿命预测方法

    Sparse-data-driven Life Prediction Method of Wind Turbine

    • 摘要: 风电装备长期运行于复杂恶劣环境条件下,针对其状态监测数据易出现采样稀疏、不规则缺失等问题,提出一种稀疏化数据条件下的风电装备剩余使用寿命预测方法。该方法面向非均匀时间采样场景,构建融合退化建模与自适应优化的寿命预测框架。首先,建立引入时间尺度平移机制的指数型退化模型,以刻画稀疏采样条件下装备退化过程的连续演化特性。其次,设计融合Huber损失函数与退化单调性约束的自适应加权损失函数,在抑制异常扰动影响的同时,保证退化建模结果的物理合理性与稳定性。在此基础上,引入由Armijo条件驱动的自适应回溯步长策略,实现稀疏观测条件下模型参数的高效、稳健优化。最后,利用风电场实际运行数据对所提方法进行验证,结果表明该方法在稀疏化数据场景下具有较高的寿命预测精度。

       

      Abstract: To address the problem that condition monitoring data of wind turbines is prone to sparse sampling and irregular missing due to long-term operation under complex and harsh environmental conditions, a remaining useful life prediction method for wind turbines under sparse data conditions is proposed. A life prediction framework integrating degradation modeling and adaptive optimization is developed for non-uniform time sampling scenarios. First, an exponential degradation model incorporating a time-scale shifting mechanism is established to characterize the continuous evolution of equipment degradation under sparse sampling conditions. Then, an adaptive weighted loss function combining the Huber loss and degradation monotonicity constraints is designed to suppress the influence of abnormal disturbances while ensuring the physical rationality and stability of the degradation modeling results. On this basis, an adaptive backtracking step-size strategy driven by the Armijo condition is introduced to achieve efficient and robust parameter optimization under sparse observation conditions. Finally, the proposed method is validated using actual operational data from a wind farm, and the results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves high prediction accuracy in sparse data scenarios.

       

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